Ohio Economy Dashboard

Hierarchical mixed-frequency dynamic factor model forecasts for Ohio and the United States.

Generated: 2026-07-28 13:05

Ohio & regional indicators

State and Midwest series: activity, prices, housing, employment, unemployment, JOLTS job openings, and UI claims.

Ohio Real GDP Growth

2026-07-28T13:05:01.033782image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
2.72 %
26Q1
2.45 %
26Q3
3.55 %
from Jan 1990
3.55 %
from Jan 2008

Real gross domestic product for Ohio (all industries), seasonally adjusted annual rate concept on FRED as a quarterly index/level. Plotted as year-over-year percent growth of the real GDP level. Forecasts are monthly latent paths from the mixed-frequency DFM, converted to year-over-year growth. FRED series: OHRQGSP.

Ohio Coincident Index Growth

2026-07-28T13:05:01.538286image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
3.44 %
Jun 26
3.14 %
Jul 26
1.72 %
from Jan 1990
1.72 %
from Jan 2008

Philadelphia Fed coincident economic activity index for Ohio — a monthly summary of state labor-market and income conditions. Shown as year-over-year percent growth of the index level. FRED series: OHPHCI.

Midwest CPI Inflation

2026-07-28T13:05:02.081903image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
4.47 %
Jun 26
3.44 %
Jul 26
2.52 %
from Jan 1990
2.32 %
from Jan 2008

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, Midwest region, all items. Used as the regional inflation proxy for Ohio (no pure statewide CPI on FRED). Plotted as year-over-year percent change in the price index. FRED series: CUUR0200SA0.

Ohio House Price Index Growth

2026-07-28T13:05:02.561931image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
4.71 %
26Q1
4.27 %
26Q3
10.76 %
from Jan 1990
9.75 %
from Jan 2008

FHFA all-transactions house price index for Ohio (quarterly). Measures repeat-sales home prices including purchase and refinance appraisals. Plotted as year-over-year percent growth of the index. FRED series: OHSTHPI.

Ohio Nonfarm Employment Growth

2026-07-28T13:05:02.922923image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
0.39 %
Jun 26
0.16 %
Jul 26
0.42 %
from Jan 1990
0.24 %
from Jan 2008

Total nonfarm payroll employment in Ohio (thousands of persons, typically SA). Plotted as year-over-year percent growth of employment, not the level of jobs. FRED series: OHNA.

Ohio Unemployment Rate

2026-07-28T13:05:03.240957image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
3.60 %
Jun 26
3.66 %
Jul 26
5.77 %
from Jan 1990
6.05 %
from Jan 2008

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Ohio (percent of the civilian labor force). Shown as a rate level (not growth). FRED series: OHUR.

Ohio Job Openings Rate (JOLTS)

2026-07-28T13:05:03.566556image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
4.80 %
Dec 25
4.74 %
Jul 26
3.56 %
from Jan 1990
3.94 %
from Jan 2008

BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings rate for total nonfarm employment in Ohio (seasonally adjusted). Labor-market tightness; shown as a rate level. Downloaded via BLS API (not FRED). FRED series: ALT_JOLTS_OH_JOR.

Ohio Initial Unemployment Claims

2026-07-28T13:05:03.913627image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
4,352 claims
Jun 26
4,352 claims
Jul 26
12,992 claims
from Jan 1990
13,605 claims
from Jan 2008

Initial unemployment insurance claims in Ohio. High-frequency labor stress indicator. Shown as the level of claims (not growth). Estimation still uses log growth; the chart maps forecasts back to claim counts. FRED series: OHICLAIMS.

Ohio Continued Unemployment Claims

2026-07-28T13:05:04.281104image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
42,421 claims
Jun 26
44,490 claims
Jul 26
97,600 claims
from Jan 1990
97,053 claims
from Jan 2008

Continued (insured) unemployment claims in Ohio. Shown as the level of claims (not growth). Estimation still uses log growth; the chart maps forecasts back to counts. FRED series: OHCCLAIMS.

Midwest Core CPI Inflation

2026-07-28T13:05:04.814574image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
3.46 %
Jun 26
2.96 %
Jul 26
2.45 %
from Jan 1990
2.33 %
from Jan 2008

Midwest CPI for all items less food and energy (core regional inflation). Year-over-year percent change in the core price index. FRED series: CUUR0200SA0L1E.

Ohio Manufacturing Employment Growth

2026-07-28T13:05:05.476666image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
0.90 %
Jun 26
0.78 %
Jul 26
-1.26 %
from Jan 1990
-0.70 %
from Jan 2008

Manufacturing payroll employment in Ohio. Important cyclical sector for the state. Plotted as year-over-year percent growth of employment. FRED series: OHMFG.

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Cleveland, OH (MSA)

Metro residual factor cleveland1 after national and Ohio factors. Uses the current Cleveland, OH MSA (BLS area 17410), not the legacy Cleveland-Elyria series. Charts: labor market, Case-Shiller, Zillow rents (ZORI) and home values (ZHVI).

Cleveland Unemployment Rate

2026-07-28T13:05:06.107592image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
3.50 %
May 26
3.56 %
Jul 26
5.18 %
from Jan 1990
5.80 %
from Jan 2008

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the current Cleveland, OH MSA (BLS/LAUS area 17410; post–OMB Bulletin 23-01 delineation). Not the legacy Cleveland-Elyria series. FRED series: LASMT391741000000003.

Cleveland Nonfarm Employment Growth

2026-07-28T13:05:06.741879image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
0.51 %
Jun 26
0.27 %
Jul 26
0.07 %
from Jan 1990
-0.09 %
from Jan 2008

Total nonfarm payroll employment in the current Cleveland, OH MSA (CES SMS391741…; not Cleveland-Elyria CLEV439/CES 17460). FRED series: SMS39174100000000001.

Cleveland Manufacturing Employment Growth

2026-07-28T13:05:07.482138image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
0.64 %
Jun 26
0.22 %
Jul 26
-1.64 %
from Jan 1990
-1.10 %
from Jan 2008

Manufacturing payroll employment in the current Cleveland, OH MSA (CES manufacturing for area 17410). FRED series: SMU39174103000000001.

Cleveland Case-Shiller Home Price Growth

2026-07-28T13:05:08.042474image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
3.11 %
Apr 26
3.27 %
Jul 26
3.20 %
from Jan 1990
2.99 %
from Jan 2008

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller OH-Cleveland home price index (city-based). Used instead of FHFA ATNHPIUS17460Q, which is the legacy Cleveland-Elyria MSA. No current-definition FHFA MSA HPI code is available on FRED yet. FRED series: CEXRSA.

Cleveland Labor Force Growth

2026-07-28T13:05:08.599849image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
-0.65 %
May 26
-0.96 %
Jul 26
0.05 %
from Jan 1990
-0.09 %
from Jan 2008

Civilian labor force for the current Cleveland, OH MSA (LAUS SA). FRED series: LASMT391741000000006.

Cleveland Rent Index Growth (ZORI)

2026-07-28T13:05:09.095486image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
3.90 %
Jun 26
4.09 %
Jul 26
5.11 %
from Jan 1990
5.11 %
from Jan 2008

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) for the Cleveland metro — smoothed asking rents. Plotted as year-over-year percent growth. Source: Zillow Research public data (not FRED). FRED series: ALT_ZORI_CLEVELAND.

Cleveland Home Value Growth (ZHVI)

2026-07-28T13:05:09.377703image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
4.07 %
Jun 26
3.91 %
Jul 26
2.76 %
from Jan 1990
2.87 %
from Jan 2008

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for the Cleveland metro. Plotted as year-over-year percent growth. Source: Zillow Research public data. FRED series: ALT_ZHVI_CLEVELAND.

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Columbus, OH (MSA)

Metro residual factor columbus1. Charts: labor market, FHFA house prices, Zillow rents (ZORI) and home values (ZHVI).

Columbus Unemployment Rate

2026-07-28T13:05:09.547834image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
2.70 %
May 26
2.96 %
Jul 26
4.85 %
from Jan 1990
5.30 %
from Jan 2008

Seasonally adjusted (or LAUS) unemployment rate for Columbus. Shown as a rate level (not growth). FRED series: COLU139URN.

Columbus Nonfarm Employment Growth

2026-07-28T13:05:09.758167image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
-0.08 %
Jun 26
-0.47 %
Jul 26
1.33 %
from Jan 1990
1.17 %
from Jan 2008

Total nonfarm payroll employment in Columbus. Plotted as year-over-year percent growth of employment. FRED series: COLU139NA.

Columbus Manufacturing Employment Growth

2026-07-28T13:05:09.928670image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
-0.39 %
Jun 26
-1.16 %
Jul 26
-0.76 %
from Jan 1990
-0.16 %
from Jan 2008

Manufacturing payroll employment in Columbus. Plotted as year-over-year percent growth. FRED series: COLU139MFGN.

Columbus House Price Index Growth

2026-07-28T13:05:10.141603image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
3.34 %
26Q1
2.93 %
26Q3
12.08 %
from Jan 1990
12.22 %
from Jan 2008

FHFA all-transactions house price index for Columbus (quarterly). Plotted as year-over-year percent growth of the index. FRED series: ATNHPIUS18140Q.

Columbus Rent Index Growth (ZORI)

2026-07-28T13:05:10.348142image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
1.51 %
Jun 26
1.39 %
Jul 26
4.94 %
from Jan 1990
4.94 %
from Jan 2008

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) for the Columbus metro — smoothed asking rents. Plotted as year-over-year percent growth. Source: Zillow Research public data (not FRED). FRED series: ALT_ZORI_COLUMBUS.

Columbus Home Value Growth (ZHVI)

2026-07-28T13:05:10.522449image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
1.25 %
Jun 26
1.07 %
Jul 26
3.63 %
from Jan 1990
3.94 %
from Jan 2008

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for the Columbus metro. Plotted as year-over-year percent growth. Source: Zillow Research public data. FRED series: ALT_ZHVI_COLUMBUS.

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Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN (MSA)

Metro residual factor cincinnati1. Charts: labor market, FHFA house prices, Zillow rents (ZORI) and home values (ZHVI).

Cincinnati Unemployment Rate

2026-07-28T13:05:10.691518image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
3.10 %
May 26
3.39 %
Jul 26
5.25 %
from Jan 1990
5.64 %
from Jan 2008

Seasonally adjusted (or LAUS) unemployment rate for Cincinnati. Shown as a rate level (not growth). FRED series: CINC139URN.

Cincinnati Nonfarm Employment Growth

2026-07-28T13:05:10.858192image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
0.70 %
Jun 26
0.26 %
Jul 26
0.85 %
from Jan 1990
0.61 %
from Jan 2008

Total nonfarm payroll employment in Cincinnati. Plotted as year-over-year percent growth of employment. FRED series: CINC139NA.

Cincinnati Manufacturing Employment Growth

2026-07-28T13:05:10.990517image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
0.81 %
Jun 26
0.44 %
Jul 26
-0.67 %
from Jan 1990
0.07 %
from Jan 2008

Manufacturing payroll employment in Cincinnati. Plotted as year-over-year percent growth. FRED series: CINC139MFG.

Cincinnati House Price Index Growth

2026-07-28T13:05:11.171792image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
4.40 %
26Q1
4.08 %
26Q3
11.06 %
from Jan 1990
10.48 %
from Jan 2008

FHFA all-transactions house price index for Cincinnati (quarterly). Plotted as year-over-year percent growth of the index. FRED series: ATNHPIUS17140Q.

Cincinnati Rent Index Growth (ZORI)

2026-07-28T13:05:11.339962image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
2.78 %
Jun 26
2.38 %
Jul 26
5.26 %
from Jan 1990
5.26 %
from Jan 2008

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) for the Cincinnati metro — smoothed asking rents. Plotted as year-over-year percent growth. Source: Zillow Research public data (not FRED). FRED series: ALT_ZORI_CINCINNATI.

Cincinnati Home Value Growth (ZHVI)

2026-07-28T13:05:11.511616image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
2.43 %
Jun 26
2.36 %
Jul 26
3.29 %
from Jan 1990
3.40 %
from Jan 2008

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for the Cincinnati metro. Plotted as year-over-year percent growth. Source: Zillow Research public data. FRED series: ALT_ZHVI_CINCINNATI.

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National (U.S.) indicators

Major U.S. series in the model’s national factor block (national series load only on national factors).

U.S. Real GDP Growth

2026-07-28T13:05:11.709538image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
2.65 %
26Q1
2.49 %
26Q3
7.48 %
from Jan 1990
5.89 %
from Jan 2008

Real gross domestic product for the United States (chained dollars, quarterly). Plotted as year-over-year percent growth. Enters the DFM in the national factor block only. FRED series: GDPC1.

U.S. Industrial Production Growth

2026-07-28T13:05:11.879016image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
1.14 %
Jun 26
0.58 %
Jul 26
1.37 %
from Jan 1990
0.01 %
from Jan 2008

Industrial Production Index, total index (Federal Reserve) — national activity analogue to Ohio’s coincident index. Year-over-year percent growth of industrial output. FRED series: INDPRO.

U.S. CPI Inflation

2026-07-28T13:05:12.079520image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
3.66 %
Jun 26
3.43 %
Jul 26
2.67 %
from Jan 1990
2.48 %
from Jan 2008

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, U.S. city average, all items. Headline national inflation as year-over-year percent change. FRED series: CPIAUCSL.

U.S. Housing Starts Growth

2026-07-28T13:05:12.307036image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
3.42 %
Jun 26
-6.42 %
Jul 26
-0.05 %
from Jan 1990
0.09 %
from Jan 2008

New privately owned housing units started (total). National housing-activity counterpart to Ohio house prices / permits. Plotted as year-over-year percent growth of starts. FRED series: HOUST.

U.S. Nonfarm Employment Growth

2026-07-28T13:05:12.453329image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
0.32 %
Jun 26
0.26 %
Jul 26
1.05 %
from Jan 1990
0.75 %
from Jan 2008

All employees, total nonfarm (U.S. payroll employment). Plotted as year-over-year percent growth of national employment. FRED series: PAYEMS.

U.S. Unemployment Rate

2026-07-28T13:05:12.596761image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
4.20 %
Jun 26
4.25 %
Jul 26
5.66 %
from Jan 1990
5.87 %
from Jan 2008

Civilian unemployment rate for the United States (percent). Shown as a rate level. FRED series: UNRATE.

U.S. Core CPI Inflation

2026-07-28T13:05:12.788610image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
2.77 %
Jun 26
2.65 %
Jul 26
2.60 %
from Jan 1990
2.47 %
from Jan 2008

U.S. CPI less food and energy (core CPI). Year-over-year percent change in the core index. FRED series: CPILFESL.

Federal Funds Effective Rate

2026-07-28T13:05:12.976591image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
3.63 %
Jun 26
3.62 %
Jul 26
2.89 %
from Jan 1990
1.44 %
from Jan 2008

Effective federal funds rate (percent). Policy interest rate; modeled and displayed as a rate. FRED series: FEDFUNDS.

10-Year Treasury Yield

2026-07-28T13:05:13.132565image/svg+xmlMatplotlib v3.11.1, https://matplotlib.org/
Latest dataNext-period forecastPost-1990 averagePost-2008 average
4.47 %
Jun 26
4.43 %
Jul 26
4.25 %
from Jan 1990
2.75 %
from Jan 2008

Market yield on U.S. Treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity (percent). Displayed as a rate level. FRED series: GS10.

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Methodology & model details

This dashboard reports forecasts from a hierarchical mixed-frequency dynamic factor model (MF-DFM) estimated on Ohio, Midwest, and national series from FRED. The state unit is monthly. Quarterly series are observed only in quarter-end months (March, June, September, December); other months are missing for those series. Charts show rate levels or year-over-year percent growth only (never QoQ/MoM).

Cleveland MSA geography: OMB redefined the metro (Bulletin 23-01): the area is now titled Cleveland, OH (not Cleveland-Elyria); Elyria was dropped as a co-named principal city and the county footprint was revised (including Ashtabula). This dashboard and the residual factor cleveland1 use only BLS/FRED series labeled Cleveland, OH (MSA) (area codes 17410 / 391741). All legacy Cleveland-Elyria series (CLEV439*, CBSA 17460, LAUS/CES 391746, ATNHPIUS17460Q) are excluded from the estimation panel and charts.

1. Observation equation (estimation space)

Let i index series and t months. After transform and standardization, the observation equation is

zi,t = αi + Λi′ Ft + εi,t

where zi,t is the demeaned/scaled estimation-space series, Ft is the vector of latent factors active for series i (see loading table), Λi are free loadings on those factors (zeros elsewhere), and εi,t is idiosyncratic noise. In sample, optional COVID dummies may enter the observation regression; forecasts set dummies to zero.

Transforms into estimation space:

  • Growth / index series: gt = 100 · log(Yt / Yt−1) (monthly) or QoQ log growth at quarter ends.
  • Rate series (unemployment, yields, fed funds): Δrt = rt − rt−1 (first difference; avoids mean-reversion of levels to the long historical average).

Each transformed series is standardized using means and standard deviations computed from 2000-01-01 onward (hard COVID window excluded from location/scale).

2. Factor hierarchy and extraction

Factors are extracted stagewise by residualized EM-PCA, then loadings are estimated by OLS with the hierarchy mask:

  1. National factors FNt from the national panel only. Residualize all series on FN.
  2. Ohio residual factors FOHt from non-national residuals. Residualize non-national series on FOH.
  3. MSA residual factors Fmt for each metro m ∈ {cleveland, columbus, cincinnati} from that metro’s residual panel. Residualize those series on Fm.
  4. Sector block factors Fbt for b ∈ {labor, prices, housing, activity} from residualized series in each block.
  • National factors: 2
  • Ohio residual factors: 2
  • MSA residual factors: 1 each for cleveland, columbus, cincinnati
  • Block factors: 1 per block (labor, prices, housing, activity)
  • Total factors: 11 — national1, national2, ohio1, ohio2, cleveland1, columbus1, cincinnati1, labor1, prices1, housing1, activity1

3. Which series load on which factors

✓ = free loading estimated; blank / — = restricted to zero. “Own block” means labor / prices / housing / activity matching the series catalog.

Series groupNational
national*		Ohio residual
ohio*		MSA residualSector block
labor* etc.
National (US GDP, CPI, UNRATE, FEDFUNDS, …)✓———
Ohio state / regional (OHUR, OHRQGSP, Midwest CPI, …)✓✓—own block
Cleveland MSA series✓✓own only
cleveland*		own block
Columbus MSA series✓✓own only
columbus*		own block
Cincinnati MSA series✓✓own only
cincinnati*		own block

Compactly, for a series with allowed factor set Si:

zi,t = αi + Σk ∈ Si λi,k fk,t + εi,t

Si = {national*} for national series; Si = {national*, ohio*, blocki} for state/regional; Si = {national*, ohio*, msai, blocki} for Columbus/Cincinnati MSA series.

4. Factor dynamics (sparse VARX)

Factors follow a sparse hierarchical VARX (not independent ARs):

Ft = c + Σj=1p Φj Ft−j + Γ Xt−1 + ut
  • Lag order: p = 6 (BIC sum over candidates [1, 2, 3, 4, 6])
  • Sparsity: national factors depend only on national lags; Ohio on national+Ohio; each MSA on national+Ohio+own MSA; blocks on national+Ohio+own block.
  • Exogenous X (national financial/activity, lag 1, in Ohio/MSA/block equations): FEDFUNDS, GS10, INDPRO, PAYEMS, UNRATE (AR(1) for multi-step X paths).
  • Kalman smoother: factors refined by a joint linear Gaussian filter/smoother given hierarchical loadings and the VARX law (Mariano–Murasawa poly for quarterly series).
  • Extraction weights: majors up-weighted in EM-PCA (×3).

5. Idiosyncratic residual, direct multi-horizon, and forecasts

Let êi,T be the last in-sample residual in estimation space. Forecasts add a decaying AR(1) residual path so short-horizon forecasts do not jump from the last data point to the pure common component:

êi,T+h = ρih êi,T,    ẑi,T+h = αi + Λi′ F̂T+h + êi,T+h

Direct multi-horizon: for major indicators, also estimate zi,T+h = ai,h + bi,h′ FT by OLS for h ∈ {1,2,3,4,5,6,9,12} and blend with the iterated VARX common-component path.

Factors are iterated with the sparse VARX (Monte Carlo draws of shocks for bands). Mapping back to levels:

  • Growth series: compound from last level, YT+h = YT · exp(Σ ĝ / 100); quarterly growth is applied as g/3 per month for a monthly latent path (MM used in Kalman measurement).
  • Rate series: rT+h = rT + Σ Δr̂.

Dashboard display for indexes is year-over-year growth of the level path, 100 · log(Yt / Yt−12). Confidence bands: 350 Monte Carlo simulations; 68% (16th–84th) and faint outer 95% (2.5th–97.5th) percentiles. Chart history ≈ 3 years, January-aligned; forecast horizon 12 months.

6. Sample & robustness

  • Estimation sample: 1929-12-31 to 2026-06-30 (138 series after filters)
  • Factor sample start: 2000-01-01
  • COVID handling: dummies (2020-03-01–2020-12-31; soft tail to 2021-06-30)
  • Growth / Δr winsorization: 0.5% tails
  • Advanced flags: VARX=True, Kalman=True, MM=True, direct=True
  • MSA dashboard packs: Columbus (18140) and Cincinnati (17140): unemployment, employment, manufacturing, FHFA HPI. Cleveland (current 17410): unemployment, employment, manufacturing, Case-Shiller Cleveland HPI, labor force. Building permits are not plotted on the dashboard.

7. Data sources

Primary and alternative series used in estimation and on this page (programmatic downloads; free public APIs / open CSVs):

  • FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) — fred.stlouisfed.org · API docs: docs (Ohio/MSA/national labor, housing, GDP, CPI, rates, claims, etc.)
  • BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) — bls.gov/jlt · Public API: developers (Ohio job openings rate and related JOLTS series)
  • EIA electricity retail sales — eia.gov/opendata (Ohio total and industrial sales, MWh)
  • BEA Regional Economic Accounts — bea.gov regional · API: API signup (Ohio real GDP and personal income; metro regional price parities)
  • Zillow Research public data — zillow.com/research/data (ZORI rents and ZHVI home values for Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati metros; attribution to Zillow Research required)
  • Census / BLS via FRED — high-propensity business applications and other formation series where available (e.g. BAHBATOTALSAOH on FRED)

Cleveland labor charts use the current Cleveland, OH MSA (BLS area 17410), not legacy Cleveland-Elyria (17460) series. See series notes on individual cards.

8. Software

This dashboard was developed with assistance from Grok Build 0.2.112 (xAI).

Model and dashboard by Gabriel Mihalache, The Ohio State University. These are research forecasts, not official statistical releases.

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