Hierarchical DFM factor paths
Data through Aug 2026 · Updated Aug 12, 2026
11 factors · history from 2000 · COVID window blanked (line breaks) · forecast 12 months
These are latent statistical factors from the hierarchical mixed-frequency DFM used on the Ohio economy page—not plotted series. Soft titles are interpretation aids from the largest absolute loadings in the current estimate.
- Sign is arbitrary (weakly normalized); higher is not automatically “better.”
- Scale is standardized (near mean zero in sample), not percent growth or rate points.
- MSA and block factors are residuals after higher layers (national, then Ohio, then local/sector).
- Labels can shift when loadings re-estimate; technical ids (
national1, …) stay stable. - Plots start in 2000. The hard/soft COVID window is missing on the chart (line breaks, not connected through the gap) so 2020–21 spikes do not dominate the scale.
National factors
Back to topExtracted from the national panel first; all series may load on these.
National activity / labor common factor
Technical id national1 · latest Aug 2026: +0.31 · central path Aug 2027: -0.02
Largest |loadings|: −1.24 LASMT391741000000003; +1.11 OHPHCI; −1.05 OHUR; +1.03 PAYEMS; −0.90 UNRATE.
Standardized latent factor (mean near zero in sample). History from 2000; COVID months blanked with a broken line. Bands: 68% and faint 95% Monte Carlo paths from the sparse factor VARX. Sign and scale are statistical identification choices, not percent growth or unemployment points.
National second factor (prices–activity mix)
Technical id national2 · latest Aug 2026: -0.14 · central path Aug 2027: +0.09
Largest |loadings|: +0.81 GDPC1; +0.76 OHRQGSP; +0.67 GDP; −0.56 OHOTOT; +0.52 LASMT391741000000003.
Second national factor is a residual mix — less clean than national1.
Standardized latent factor (mean near zero in sample). History from 2000; COVID months blanked with a broken line. Bands: 68% and faint 95% Monte Carlo paths from the sparse factor VARX. Sign and scale are statistical identification choices, not percent growth or unemployment points.
Ohio & regional factors
Back to topStatewide residual factors (ohio*) then sector block residuals (labor / prices / housing / activity), all after national factors are removed.
Ohio labor-market residual
Technical id ohio1 · latest Aug 2026: +2.95 · central path Aug 2027: -0.06
Largest |loadings|: +0.80 OHFRAN0URN; +0.79 OHHAMI1URN; +0.78 COLU139URN; +0.77 OHDELA5URN; +0.76 OHBUTL2URN.
Standardized latent factor (mean near zero in sample). History from 2000; COVID months blanked with a broken line. Bands: 68% and faint 95% Monte Carlo paths from the sparse factor VARX. Sign and scale are statistical identification choices, not percent growth or unemployment points.
Ohio housing / listings residual
Technical id ohio2 · latest Aug 2026: +0.20 · central path Aug 2027: -0.00
Largest |loadings|: +0.68 OHNA; +0.64 COLU139NA; +0.61 SMS39174100000000001; +0.60 SMU39181400600000001SA; +0.54 CINC139NA.
Standardized latent factor (mean near zero in sample). History from 2000; COVID months blanked with a broken line. Bands: 68% and faint 95% Monte Carlo paths from the sparse factor VARX. Sign and scale are statistical identification choices, not percent growth or unemployment points.
Labor block residual
Technical id labor1 · latest Aug 2026: -0.23 · central path Aug 2027: +0.10
Largest |loadings|: +1.09 OHLF; +0.96 LBSSA39; +0.95 LASMT391741000000006; +0.90 COLU139LF; +0.18 CINC139LFN.
Standardized latent factor (mean near zero in sample). History from 2000; COVID months blanked with a broken line. Bands: 68% and faint 95% Monte Carlo paths from the sparse factor VARX. Sign and scale are statistical identification choices, not percent growth or unemployment points.
Prices block residual
Technical id prices1 · latest Aug 2026: +0.06 · central path Aug 2027: +0.04
Largest |loadings|: +0.55 CUUR0200SA0; +0.15 CUUR0200SA0L1E.
Standardized latent factor (mean near zero in sample). History from 2000; COVID months blanked with a broken line. Bands: 68% and faint 95% Monte Carlo paths from the sparse factor VARX. Sign and scale are statistical identification choices, not percent growth or unemployment points.
Housing-construction block residual
Technical id housing1 · latest Aug 2026: +0.00 · central path Aug 2027: -0.05
Largest |loadings|: −0.94 OHBPPRIVSA; −0.86 COLU139BPPRIVSA; −0.80 OHBPPRIV; −0.32 CINC139BPPRIVSA; −0.29 COLU139BP1FH.
Standardized latent factor (mean near zero in sample). History from 2000; COVID months blanked with a broken line. Bands: 68% and faint 95% Monte Carlo paths from the sparse factor VARX. Sign and scale are statistical identification choices, not percent growth or unemployment points.
Activity / income block residual
Technical id activity1 · latest Aug 2026: +0.51 · central path Aug 2027: +0.02
Largest |loadings|: +0.50 CUUR0200SAH21; +0.41 APUA21072610; +0.41 CUUR0200SA0L2; +0.40 APU020072610; +0.39 CUUR0200SEHF01.
Standardized latent factor (mean near zero in sample). History from 2000; COVID months blanked with a broken line. Bands: 68% and faint 95% Monte Carlo paths from the sparse factor VARX. Sign and scale are statistical identification choices, not percent growth or unemployment points.
Cleveland, OH (MSA) residual
Back to topMSA residual after national and Ohio factors — local deviation, not a standalone “economy index.”
Cleveland residual (labor-heavy)
Technical id cleveland1 · latest Aug 2026: -0.71 · central path Aug 2027: -0.11
Largest |loadings|: +0.77 LASMT391741000000003; +0.66 ALT_ZHVI_CLEVELAND; +0.61 CEXRSA; +0.21 LASMT391741000000006; +0.20 SMU39174103000000001.
Standardized latent factor (mean near zero in sample). History from 2000; COVID months blanked with a broken line. Bands: 68% and faint 95% Monte Carlo paths from the sparse factor VARX. Sign and scale are statistical identification choices, not percent growth or unemployment points.
Columbus, OH (MSA) residual
Back to topMSA residual after national and Ohio factors — local deviation, not a standalone “economy index.”
Columbus residual
Technical id columbus1 · latest Aug 2026: -0.01 · central path Aug 2027: -0.05
Largest |loadings|: +0.50 COLU139NRMN; +0.49 SMU39181402023800001SA; +0.34 SMU39181400600000001SA; +0.34 ATNHPIUS18140Q; −0.23 COLU139NA.
Standardized latent factor (mean near zero in sample). History from 2000; COVID months blanked with a broken line. Bands: 68% and faint 95% Monte Carlo paths from the sparse factor VARX. Sign and scale are statistical identification choices, not percent growth or unemployment points.
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN (MSA) residual
Back to topMSA residual after national and Ohio factors — local deviation, not a standalone “economy index.”
Cincinnati residual
Technical id cincinnati1 · latest Aug 2026: -0.35 · central path Aug 2027: -0.08
Largest |loadings|: +0.52 CINC139NA; +0.24 ALT_ZORI_CINCINNATI; −0.24 MEDLISPRIPERSQUFEE17140; +0.20 ATNHPIUS17140Q; +0.18 CINC139MFG.
Standardized latent factor (mean near zero in sample). History from 2000; COVID months blanked with a broken line. Bands: 68% and faint 95% Monte Carlo paths from the sparse factor VARX. Sign and scale are statistical identification choices, not percent growth or unemployment points.