Conditions and a one-year statistical outlook for Ohio, its large metros, and the U.S.
Data through Aug 2026 · Updated Aug 12, 2026
Snapshot for Jun 2026: a mid-cycle expansion with a still-tight labor market. On the ground: the labor market remains tight; growth gauges on the firm side; inflation roughly normal; housing costs still hot. That reading is backed by low unemployment, still-elevated openings, low UI claims, firm activity growth. Over the next year the central paths lean toward a bit more cooling in activity, with labor still relatively steady. No clear recession-style warning in the major labor and activity paths. For additional regional intelligence covering all of Ohio (and the rest of the Fourth District), the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is a valuable source—especially its SORCE survey and Fourth District Beige Book.
One-glance read aligned with the summary above. Green = favorable, yellow = caution, red = concerning.
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2005) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
2.72% 2026 Q1 | 0.86% 2026 Q3 | 1.15% since 2005 | 1.27% since 2008 |
As of 2026 Q1, Ohio Real GDP Growth is a bit off its long-run pace: growth is a bit firmer than its long-run norm. Over the coming year growth is projected to moderate—cooler expansion rates, not a labeled recession path. In step with the big picture’s firm activity theme. That path coheres with the big picture’s cooling bias.
Ohio real GDP (all industries), year-over-year percent growth. Broad measure of state output. Source: FRED (OHRQGSP).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
3.44% Jun 2026 | 2.95% Sep 2026 | 1.54% since 2000 | 1.72% since 2008 |
In the latest data (Jun 2026), Ohio Coincident Index Growth sits slightly outside the usual range: growth is a bit firmer than its long-run norm. Over the coming year growth is projected to moderate—cooler expansion rates, not a labeled recession path. That coheres with the big picture: activity is firm. The forecast path also fits that cooling bias.
Philadelphia Fed Ohio coincident index, year-over-year percent growth. Monthly summary of state labor-market and income conditions. Source: FRED (OHPHCI).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
3.43% Jul 2026 | 2.87% Sep 2026 | 2.32% since 2000 | 2.32% since 2008 |
Through Jul 2026, Midwest CPI Inflation is only mildly unusual: inflation is still a bit warm versus its long-run norm. Over the coming year inflation eases toward a more normal pace on the central path. Price growth here looks higher than the headline inflation theme. That lines up with a cooling statewide outlook.
Midwest consumer price inflation (all items), year-over-year. Regional price proxy for Ohio households and businesses. Source: FRED (CUUR0200SA0).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
4.71% 2026 Q1 | 1.69% 2026 Q3 | 3.30% since 2000 | 3.56% since 2008 |
Latest reading (2026 Q1), Ohio House Price Index Growth sits slightly outside the usual range: housing-cost growth is a bit elevated versus history. Looking ahead, housing-cost growth eases in the projection. That coheres with the overall story’s hot housing theme.
FHFA Ohio house price index, year-over-year percent growth. Statewide home-price momentum. Source: FRED (OHSTHPI).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
0.39% Jun 2026 | 0.32% Sep 2026 | 0.03% since 2000 | 0.24% since 2008 |
As of Jun 2026, Ohio Nonfarm Employment Growth looks ordinary: growth is near a normal expansion pace. On the one-year path, conditions look set to stay in a similar range. Less extreme than the overall story’s firm activity read.
Ohio total nonfarm payroll employment, year-over-year percent growth. Source: FRED (OHNA).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
3.60% Jun 2026 | 3.50% Sep 2026 | 5.87% since 2000 | 6.05% since 2008 |
Latest reading (Jun 2026), Ohio Unemployment Rate is a notable outlier: the labor market looks unusually tight (unemployment well below its long-run norm). Looking ahead, the model holds near recent readings rather than a big turn. In line with the statewide read: labor remains tight.
Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Ohio (percent of the labor force). Source: FRED (OHUR).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
4.80% Dec 2025 | 4.71% Sep 2026 | 3.56% since 2000 | 3.94% since 2008 |
Through Dec 2025, Ohio Job Openings Rate (JOLTS) stands out: openings look exceptionally elevated versus history. On the one-year path, conditions look set to stay in a similar range. This matches the headline view, where labor is tight.
BLS JOLTS job openings rate for Ohio nonfarm employment (seasonally adjusted). State monthly estimates lag the national JOLTS release: as of mid-2026 BLS publishes state series with the annual state package (prior-year months revised then), so the latest Ohio point is often several months behind U.S. openings. Do not compare the Ohio rate to the more timely national rate as if they share the same as-of month. Labor-market openings rate for Ohio. Source: BLS JOLTS state estimates (ALT_JOLTS_OH_JOR); state monthly data lag national JOLTS and are revised with the annual state release.
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
4,425 claims Aug 2026 | 5,153 claims Sep 2026 | 58,112 claims since 2000 | 58,062 claims since 2008 |
Through Aug 2026, Ohio Initial Unemployment Claims is clearly unusual versus history: claims look exceptionally low by historical standards. Over the coming year the central path looks like more of the same—no sharp break from current conditions. This matches the headline view, where labor is tight.
Initial unemployment insurance claims in Ohio (monthly sum of weekly FRED data). Source: FRED (OHICLAIMS).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
172,124 claims Jul 2026 | 142,521 claims Sep 2026 | 433,839 claims since 2000 | 421,637 claims since 2008 |
As of Jul 2026, Ohio Continued Unemployment Claims is clearly unusual versus history: claims look exceptionally low by historical standards. Through the forecast horizon, little change is expected on the central path. This matches the statewide read, where labor is tight.
Continued (insured) unemployment claims in Ohio. How many people remain on benefits. Source: FRED (OHCCLAIMS).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
2.64% Jul 2026 | 2.17% Sep 2026 | 2.17% since 2000 | 2.32% since 2008 |
As of Jul 2026, nothing unusual in Midwest Core CPI Inflation: price growth looks close to a normal historical pace. Looking ahead, price growth cools somewhat in the projection. That coheres with the statewide read’s normal inflation theme. The projected path agrees.
Midwest CPI excluding food and energy, year-over-year. Core regional consumer price growth. Source: FRED (CUUR0200SA0L1E).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
0.90% Jun 2026 | 1.33% Sep 2026 | -1.61% since 2000 | -0.70% since 2008 |
In the latest data (Jun 2026), Ohio Manufacturing Employment Growth is a notable outlier: growth looks unusually strong by historical standards. On the one-year path, activity growth eases from recent rates. In step with the statewide read’s firm activity theme. That path coheres with the big picture’s cooling bias.
Ohio manufacturing payroll employment, year-over-year percent growth. Source: FRED (OHMFG).
As of 2025, Ohio’s largest GDP contributors include Finance, insurance & real estate, Manufacturing, Professional & business services. Manufacturing alone is about 14% of Ohio GDP versus roughly 9% nationally—Ohio remains a goods-heavy state. Finance/real estate and health care are large service anchors alongside professional services and government. Shares are current-dollar BEA GDP by industry (structural snapshot, not a monthly cycle gauge).
Annual GDP by industry, current dollars (BEA Regional table SAGDP2N). Bars show each sector’s share of statewide (or U.S.) GDP for the latest available year (2025). Top sectors by Ohio share; U.S. shares shown for comparison. Source: BEA GDP by State.
In 2025, Ohio shipped about $57 billion in goods exports. Exports were about -2% versus 2024. Goods imports were about $87 billion the same year (merchandise trade deficit of roughly $31 billion). Manufactured goods account for the bulk of shipments (about 94% of exports). On the latest detailed partner snapshot (2022), the largest markets include Canada (34%), Mexico (13%), Japan (6%), China (5%). Trade data are merchandise only (not services), concentrated in vehicles, machinery, and other industrial products.
Annual totals of monthly Census goods trade for Ohio (FRED EXPTOTOH / IMPTOTOH), calendar years with full 12 months. Partner shares use Census/Origin-of-Movement annual series via FRED (latest detailed year). Source: FRED / U.S. Census Bureau.
As of the Jun 2026 survey wave, Cleveland Fed SORCE diffusion indexes summarize whether more Fourth District contacts report increases than decreases in current conditions, employment, and expected conditions (positive = net expansion among respondents). These are soft, timely regional survey readings—not official Ohio hard data—and complement the hard series above. Coverage is the Federal Reserve’s Fourth District (all of Ohio plus parts of PA, KY, and WV).
Seasonally adjusted diffusion indexes from the Cleveland Fed Survey of Regional Conditions and Expectations (SORCE) for the Total sector. Index = percent reporting increases minus percent reporting decreases (range −100 to +100; zero ≈ balance). Released about eight times per year. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland — SORCE (doi:10.26509/frbc-sorce). Not estimated inside the DFM; shown for regional context.
As of Jun 2026 in Cleveland, labor is tight and payroll growth soft—consistent with the statewide read (a mid-cycle expansion with a still-tight labor market). Housing: house prices ordinary; rents cooler. Local paths (lower unemployment, cooler job growth) cohere with the statewide cooling bias.
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
3.30% Jun 2026 | 3.16% Sep 2026 | 5.47% since 2000 | 5.79% since 2008 |
Latest reading (Jun 2026), Cleveland Unemployment Rate is a notable outlier: the labor market looks unusually tight (unemployment well below its long-run norm). Looking ahead, unemployment drifts a little lower on the central path. This matches the statewide read, where labor is tight. That path is firmer than the big picture’s cooling bias.
Unemployment rate for the Cleveland, OH metro area. Source: FRED (LASMT391741000000003).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
0.51% Jun 2026 | 0.63% Sep 2026 | -0.30% since 2000 | -0.09% since 2008 |
In the latest data (Jun 2026), Cleveland Nonfarm Employment Growth is only mildly unusual: growth is a bit firmer than its long-run norm. Looking ahead, growth cools on the central path without a sharp break. Supports the headline view that activity is firm. That path coheres with the big picture’s cooling bias.
Total nonfarm payroll employment in the Cleveland metro, year-over-year percent growth. Source: FRED (SMS39174100000000001).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
0.64% Jun 2026 | 1.89% Sep 2026 | -2.03% since 2000 | -1.10% since 2008 |
As of Jun 2026, Cleveland Manufacturing Employment Growth is a notable outlier: growth looks unusually strong by historical standards. On the one-year path, activity growth eases from recent rates. That coheres with the headline view: activity is firm. That lines up with a cooling statewide outlook.
Manufacturing payroll employment in the Cleveland metro, year-over-year percent growth. Source: FRED (SMU39174103000000001).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
3.01% May 2026 | 2.18% Sep 2026 | 2.70% since 2000 | 2.99% since 2008 |
In the latest data (May 2026), Cleveland Case-Shiller Home Price Growth is near historical norms: home/rent price growth looks near a normal pace. Over the coming year price/rent growth cools on the central path. Housing here reads more normal than the headline view.
S&P Case-Shiller home price index for Cleveland, year-over-year percent growth. Source: FRED (CEXRSA).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
-1.09% Jun 2026 | -1.26% Sep 2026 | -0.11% since 2000 | -0.10% since 2008 |
As of Jun 2026, Cleveland Labor Force Growth is only mildly unusual: growth is a bit soft versus its long-run norm—expansion, but not boom-like. Through the forecast horizon, activity growth strengthens modestly. Unlike the overall story (firm activity), this series looks more soft. Unlike the cooling headline path, this series firms ahead.
Civilian labor force in the Cleveland metro, year-over-year percent growth. Source: FRED (LASMT391741000000006).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2015) | Average (since 2015) |
|---|---|---|---|
3.90% Jun 2026 | 3.15% Sep 2026 | 5.11% since 2015 | 5.11% since 2015 |
As of Jun 2026, Cleveland Rent Growth (Zillow) is a bit off its long-run pace: housing-cost growth is a bit cooler than its long-run average (that average includes past boom years). Through the forecast horizon, little change is expected on the central path. Softer housing growth than the headline housing read.
Zillow Observed Rent Index for the Cleveland metro — smoothed asking rents, year-over-year percent growth. Source: Zillow Research (ALT_ZORI_CLEVELAND).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
4.07% Jun 2026 | 3.32% Sep 2026 | 2.76% since 2000 | 2.87% since 2008 |
In the latest data (Jun 2026), Cleveland Home Value Growth (Zillow) is only mildly unusual: housing-cost growth is a bit elevated versus history. Looking ahead, housing-cost growth eases in the projection. That coheres with the overall story’s hot housing theme.
Zillow Home Value Index for the Cleveland metro, year-over-year percent growth. Source: Zillow Research (ALT_ZHVI_CLEVELAND).
In Columbus as of Jun 2026, local labor looks tight with soft payroll growth—matching the statewide labor theme (a mid-cycle expansion with a still-tight labor market). Manufacturing and total jobs are not moving together locally—a contrast within the metro. Housing: house prices ordinary; rents cooler. Local paths (lower unemployment, cooler job growth) cohere with the statewide cooling bias.
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
3.30% Jun 2026 | 2.69% Sep 2026 | 5.16% since 2000 | 5.29% since 2008 |
In the latest data (Jun 2026), Columbus Unemployment Rate stands out: the labor market looks unusually tight (unemployment well below its long-run norm). Looking ahead, unemployment drifts a little lower on the central path. That coheres with the headline view (a mid-cycle expansion with a still-tight labor market): labor is tight. Unlike the cooling headline path, this series firms ahead.
Unemployment rate for the Columbus metro area. Source: FRED (COLU139URN).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
-0.08% Jun 2026 | -0.43% Sep 2026 | 0.96% since 2000 | 1.17% since 2008 |
Latest reading (Jun 2026), Columbus Nonfarm Employment Growth is only mildly unusual: growth is a bit soft versus its long-run norm—expansion, but not boom-like. Over the coming year growth is projected to firm somewhat. That contrasts with the overall story’s firm activity read—here growth looks more soft. More resilient than the statewide cooling tilt.
Total nonfarm payroll employment in Columbus, year-over-year percent growth. Source: FRED (COLU139NA).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
-0.39% Jun 2026 | -0.18% Sep 2026 | -1.21% since 2000 | -0.16% since 2008 |
Latest reading (Jun 2026), Columbus Manufacturing Employment Growth sits slightly outside the usual range: growth is a bit firmer than its long-run norm. On the one-year path, conditions look set to stay in a similar range. That coheres with the big picture: activity is firm.
Manufacturing payroll employment in Columbus, year-over-year percent growth. Source: FRED (COLU139MFGN).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
3.34% 2026 Q1 | 1.18% 2026 Q3 | 3.96% since 2000 | 4.31% since 2008 |
Latest reading (2026 Q1), Columbus House Price Index Growth is near historical norms: home/rent price growth looks near a normal pace. Over the coming year price/rent growth cools on the central path. Housing here reads more normal than the headline view.
FHFA house price index for Columbus, year-over-year percent growth. Source: FRED (ATNHPIUS18140Q).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2015) | Average (since 2015) |
|---|---|---|---|
1.51% Jun 2026 | 1.50% Sep 2026 | 4.94% since 2015 | 4.94% since 2015 |
Through Jun 2026, Columbus Rent Growth (Zillow) is clearly unusual versus history: housing-cost growth is cool versus a long-run average that includes boom years—low relative to that history, not a diagnosis on its own. Looking ahead, housing-cost growth firms modestly. That is cooler than the big picture’s housing theme.
Zillow Observed Rent Index for the Columbus metro — smoothed asking rents, year-over-year percent growth. Source: Zillow Research (ALT_ZORI_COLUMBUS).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
1.25% Jun 2026 | 0.49% Sep 2026 | 3.63% since 2000 | 3.94% since 2008 |
As of Jun 2026, Columbus Home Value Growth (Zillow) is only mildly unusual: housing-cost growth is a bit cooler than its long-run average (that average includes past boom years). Over the coming year price/rent growth cools on the central path. That is cooler than the big picture’s housing theme.
Zillow Home Value Index for the Columbus metro, year-over-year percent growth. Source: Zillow Research (ALT_ZHVI_COLUMBUS).
As of Jun 2026 in Cincinnati, labor is tight and payroll growth soft—consistent with the statewide read (a mid-cycle expansion with a still-tight labor market). Manufacturing and total jobs are not moving together locally—a contrast within the metro. Housing: house prices ordinary; rents cooler. Local paths (lower unemployment, cooler job growth) cohere with the statewide cooling bias.
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
3.90% Jun 2026 | 3.27% Sep 2026 | 5.44% since 2000 | 5.63% since 2008 |
In the latest data (Jun 2026), Cincinnati Unemployment Rate stands out: the labor market looks unusually tight (unemployment well below its long-run norm). Over the coming year the model leans toward a slightly tighter labor market. Consistent with the statewide read’s tight labor theme. That path is firmer than the big picture’s cooling bias.
Unemployment rate for the Cincinnati metro area. Source: FRED (CINC139URN).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
0.70% Jun 2026 | 0.43% Sep 2026 | 0.55% since 2000 | 0.61% since 2008 |
Through Jun 2026, Cincinnati Nonfarm Employment Growth is near historical norms: growth is near a normal expansion pace. Looking ahead, the model holds near recent readings rather than a big turn. This is closer to normal than the statewide read’s firm activity theme.
Total nonfarm payroll employment in Cincinnati, year-over-year percent growth. Source: FRED (CINC139NA).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
0.81% Jun 2026 | 1.20% Sep 2026 | -0.73% since 2000 | 0.07% since 2008 |
In the latest data (Jun 2026), Cincinnati Manufacturing Employment Growth sits slightly outside the usual range: growth is a bit firmer than its long-run norm. Over the coming year growth is projected to moderate—cooler expansion rates, not a labeled recession path. Supports the overall story that activity is firm. The forecast path also fits that cooling bias.
Manufacturing payroll employment in Cincinnati, year-over-year percent growth. Source: FRED (CINC139MFG).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
4.40% 2026 Q1 | 2.25% 2026 Q3 | 3.54% since 2000 | 3.71% since 2008 |
Through 2026 Q1, Cincinnati House Price Index Growth looks ordinary: home/rent price growth looks near a normal pace. Over the coming year price/rent growth cools on the central path. Housing here reads more normal than the statewide read.
FHFA house price index for Cincinnati, year-over-year percent growth. Source: FRED (ATNHPIUS17140Q).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2015) | Average (since 2015) |
|---|---|---|---|
2.78% Jun 2026 | 2.05% Sep 2026 | 5.26% since 2015 | 5.26% since 2015 |
Through Jun 2026, Cincinnati Rent Growth (Zillow) is only mildly unusual: housing-cost growth is a bit cooler than its long-run average (that average includes past boom years). Over the coming year price/rent growth picks up on the central path. Softer housing growth than the headline housing read.
Zillow Observed Rent Index for the Cincinnati metro — smoothed asking rents, year-over-year percent growth. Source: Zillow Research (ALT_ZORI_CINCINNATI).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
2.43% Jun 2026 | 2.00% Sep 2026 | 3.29% since 2000 | 3.40% since 2008 |
As of Jun 2026, Cincinnati Home Value Growth (Zillow) looks ordinary: home/rent price growth looks near a normal pace. Over the coming year the central path looks like more of the same—no sharp break from current conditions. Housing here reads more normal than the statewide read.
Zillow Home Value Index for the Cincinnati metro, year-over-year percent growth. Source: Zillow Research (ALT_ZHVI_CINCINNATI).
U.S. context for the Ohio outlook—activity, prices, jobs, and interest rates.
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
2.08% 2026 Q2 | 1.29% 2026 Q3 | 2.11% since 2000 | 1.97% since 2008 |
As of 2026 Q2, nothing unusual in U.S. Real GDP Growth: growth is near a normal expansion pace. Over the coming year the central path looks like more of the same—no sharp break from current conditions. Less extreme than the big picture’s firm activity read.
U.S. real GDP, year-over-year percent growth. Source: FRED (GDPC1).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
1.14% Jun 2026 | 0.98% Sep 2026 | 0.37% since 2000 | 0.01% since 2008 |
Through Jun 2026, U.S. Industrial Production Growth is a bit off its long-run pace: growth is a bit firmer than its long-run norm. On the one-year path, conditions look set to stay in a similar range. Supports the headline view that activity is firm.
Federal Reserve industrial production index, year-over-year percent growth. Source: FRED (INDPRO).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
3.25% Jul 2026 | 2.79% Sep 2026 | 2.52% since 2000 | 2.47% since 2008 |
Latest reading (Jul 2026), U.S. CPI Inflation is only mildly unusual: inflation is still a bit warm versus its long-run norm. Looking ahead, price growth cools somewhat in the projection. That runs hotter than the big picture’s overall inflation read. The forecast path also fits that cooling bias.
U.S. consumer price inflation (all items), year-over-year. Source: FRED (CPIAUCSL).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
3.42% Jun 2026 | 0.29% Sep 2026 | -0.58% since 2000 | 0.09% since 2008 |
Through Jun 2026, U.S. Housing Starts Growth is clearly unusual versus history: housing starts growth is running hot versus history (units begun, not house prices). Over the coming year housing starts growth cools on the central path. That coheres with the big picture’s hot housing theme.
New U.S. housing units started, year-over-year percent growth (quantity of units begun—not house prices or rents). Source: FRED (HOUST).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
0.20% Jul 2026 | 0.29% Sep 2026 | 0.72% since 2000 | 0.75% since 2008 |
Latest reading (Jul 2026), nothing unusual in U.S. Nonfarm Employment Growth: growth is near a normal expansion pace. Through the forecast horizon, activity growth strengthens modestly. Less extreme than the headline view’s firm activity read. Unlike the cooling headline path, this series firms ahead.
U.S. total nonfarm payroll employment, year-over-year percent growth. Source: FRED (PAYEMS).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
4.10% Jul 2026 | 3.99% Sep 2026 | 5.61% since 2000 | 5.86% since 2008 |
Through Jul 2026, U.S. Unemployment Rate is clearly unusual versus history: the labor market looks unusually tight (unemployment well below its long-run norm). On the one-year path, conditions look set to stay in a similar range. In line with the big picture: labor remains tight.
U.S. civilian unemployment rate (percent). Source: FRED (UNRATE).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
2.44% Jul 2026 | 2.13% Sep 2026 | 2.38% since 2000 | 2.46% since 2008 |
As of Jul 2026, U.S. Core CPI Inflation is near historical norms: price growth looks close to a normal historical pace. On the one-year path, conditions look set to stay in a similar range. That coheres with the statewide read’s normal inflation theme.
U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, year-over-year. Source: FRED (CPILFESL).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
3.63% Jul 2026 | 3.61% Sep 2026 | 2.04% since 2000 | 1.45% since 2008 |
Through Jul 2026, Federal Funds Effective Rate is clearly unusual versus history: this rate looks unusually high by post-1990 standards. On the one-year path, conditions look set to stay in a similar range. National rates are context for Ohio financing conditions; the overall story remains a mid-cycle expansion with a still-tight labor market.
Effective federal funds rate (policy interest rate). Source: FRED (FEDFUNDS).
| Latest data | Forecast | Average (since 2000) | Average (since 2008) |
|---|---|---|---|
4.60% Jul 2026 | 4.62% Sep 2026 | 3.34% since 2000 | 2.76% since 2008 |
Through Jul 2026, 10-Year Treasury Yield is a bit off its long-run pace: this rate is somewhat high versus its long-run average. Over the coming year the central path looks like more of the same—no sharp break from current conditions. National rates are context for Ohio financing conditions; the big picture remains a mid-cycle expansion with a still-tight labor market.
Market yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury securities. Source: FRED (GS10).
This dashboard reports forecasts from a hierarchical mixed-frequency dynamic factor model (MF-DFM) estimated on Ohio, Midwest, and national series from FRED. The state unit is monthly. Quarterly series are observed only in quarter-end months (March, June, September, December); other months are missing for those series. Charts show rate levels or year-over-year percent growth only (never QoQ/MoM).
Cleveland MSA geography: OMB redefined the metro (Bulletin 23-01): the area is now titled Cleveland, OH (not Cleveland-Elyria); Elyria was dropped as a co-named principal city and the county footprint was revised (including Ashtabula). This dashboard and the residual factor cleveland1 use only BLS/FRED series labeled Cleveland, OH (MSA) (area codes 17410 / 391741). All legacy Cleveland-Elyria series (CLEV439*, CBSA 17460, LAUS/CES 391746, ATNHPIUS17460Q) are excluded from the estimation panel and charts.
Let \(i\) index series and \(t\) months. After transform and standardization, the observation equation is
where \(z_{i,t}\) is the demeaned/scaled estimation-space series, \(F_t\) is the vector of latent factors active for series \(i\) (see loading table), \(\Lambda_i\) are free loadings on those factors (zeros elsewhere), and \(\varepsilon_{i,t}\) is idiosyncratic noise. Fourier seasonal terms (annual and semi-annual harmonics) are residualized from the panel before factor extraction so latent factors are non-seasonal; the same terms re-enter the observation regression and series forecasts. Optional COVID dummies may also enter in sample; forecasts set COVID dummies to zero.
Transforms into estimation space:
Each transformed series is standardized using means and standard deviations computed from 2000-01-01 onward (hard COVID window excluded from location/scale).
Factors are extracted stagewise by residualized EM-PCA, then loadings are estimated by OLS with the hierarchy mask:
national1, national2, ohio1, ohio2, cleveland1, columbus1, cincinnati1, labor1, prices1, housing1, activity1Estimated factor paths (history and short-horizon forecasts) for each layer of the hierarchy are plotted on a companion page: factor paths (research view).
✓ = free loading estimated; blank / — = restricted to zero. “Own block” means labor / prices / housing / activity matching the series catalog.
| Series group | Nationalnational* | Ohio residualohio* | MSA residual | Sector blocklabor* etc. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National (US GDP, CPI, UNRATE, FEDFUNDS, …) | ✓ | — | — | — |
| Ohio state / regional (OHUR, OHRQGSP, Midwest CPI, …) | ✓ | ✓ | — | own block |
| Cleveland MSA series | ✓ | ✓ | own onlycleveland* | own block |
| Columbus MSA series | ✓ | ✓ | own onlycolumbus* | own block |
| Cincinnati MSA series | ✓ | ✓ | own onlycincinnati* | own block |
Compactly, for a series with allowed factor set \(S_i\):
\(S_i\) = national factors only for national series; national + Ohio residual + own block for state/regional series; national + Ohio + own MSA residual + own block for MSA series.
Factors follow a sparse hierarchical VARX (not independent ARs):
Let \(\hat\varepsilon_{i,T}\) be the last in-sample residual in estimation space. Forecasts add a decaying AR(1) residual path so short-horizon forecasts do not jump from the last data point to the pure common component:
Direct multi-horizon: for major indicators, also estimate \(z_{i,T+h} = a_{i,h} + b_{i,h}' F_T\) by OLS for \(h \in \{1,2,3,4,5,6,9,12\}\) and blend with the iterated VARX common-component path.
Factors are iterated with the sparse VARX (Monte Carlo draws of shocks for bands). Mapping back to levels:
Dashboard display for indexes is year-over-year growth of the level path, \(100\,\log(Y_t / Y_{t-12})\). Confidence bands: 350 Monte Carlo simulations; 68% (16th–84th) and faint outer 95% (2.5th–97.5th) percentiles. Chart history ≈ 3 years, January-aligned; forecast horizon 12 months.
Primary and alternative series used in estimation and on this page (programmatic downloads; free public APIs / open CSVs):
BAHBATOTALSAOH on FRED)EXPTOTOH / IMPTOTOH monthly goods exports and imports for Ohio (annualized on the trade-trends panel; partner shares from Census SCEN series)Cleveland charts use the current Cleveland, OH metro definition (BLS area 17410). Geography details are in the Cleveland note above.
Core published work that introduces or surveys methods used in this dashboard (dynamic factors, mixed frequency, nowcasting, Kalman/EM estimation, multi-horizon projection). Links point to publisher or stable open versions where available.
Model and dashboard by Gabriel Mihalache, The Ohio State University. Research forecasts, not official statistical releases.
Software assistance: xAI Grok Build (1.0.3). Ohio flag SVG: Wikimedia Commons (public domain).